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留学移民竟然是奥克兰房市火热主要推手
   
8 O3 j( c% R- C1 r据天维网8月24日报道,援引Interest消息,新移民正成为新西兰人口增长的主要因素,意味着新移民将对房地产市场产生重大影响。4 M% x! ~  {# I, _& X
截止七月份,今年新西兰移民人数达到了58,259人。通常认为,新移民对住宅物业市场产生影响。然而,移民人口也对商业物业产生影响,因为新移民将会成为雇员和消费者,从而增加了市场对商业物业的需求。移民带来了人口增长,因为留在新西兰的人数(在长期的基础上)超过了移居海外的人数。* F6 S/ u6 Q" V- _5 R
2011-2013年期间,留在新西兰的人数和离开新西兰的人数相差不大,三年年期间新西兰总共新增移民为8,583人,平均每年为2,861人。从2014年开始,新增移民人数激增。与此同期,离开新西兰的人数锐减。此消彼长之下,人口净流入人数两年增加了637%!如此大规模的突发人口增长对新西兰的房地产市场产生了显而易见的压力,特别是在奥克兰。超过60%的新移民在这里定居,让当地的房地产市场产生了明显的短缺。! |9 }$ U' |% m2 p/ w( @
然而,为了更好地了解移民对住房市场的影响,我们还需要考虑来到和离开新西兰的人的类型。首先就是前往澳大利亚人数的变化,2013年7月,超过48,000人前往澳大利亚,同时只有16,781人回来,使得人口负增长了31,246人。然而过去的两年里,前往澳大利亚的人数减少了47%,回落到了22,781人。与此同时,从澳大利亚回来的人数增加了43%达到了24,061人,新西兰人口净增长了1185人!
8 L! `. L3 ?4 ^; A除了澳大利亚,别的国家的移民也使得新西兰人口飞速增长,印度移民人数从2013年7月份的5120人增加到2015年7月份的12,031人,增加了135%。与此同时,中国移民人数只增长了53%达到了7995人。这也意味着,印度取代了中国,成为新西兰第一大移民来源国。印度移民中有76%是通过学生签证到达的新西兰,只有46%的中国人是通过学生签证到达新西兰。人们通常认为,持有一个国家的学生签证,学习完毕后就会返回祖国,然而这一条并不适用于新西兰,因为政府的移民政策鼓励留学新西兰的人留在新西兰。比如说,在新西兰取得学士学位将会获得50分;除此之外,在新西兰本科学习2两年以上,还有10分的加分。这让来新西兰留学的人更倾向于留下来。
7 t/ E- M* w* J( i* I5 Q9 G0 m数据显示,最近十二个月中,有13,266名印度人来到了新西兰,而同期只有1235人回到了自己的祖国,大部分印度人都留在这里学习和居住。与此同时10,253名中国人来到了新西兰,除去4877名持学生签证的学生,只有2257人回去了中国。这些新增移民对新西兰的房市产生了巨大的影响,在新西兰居住超过12个月的海外居民中,有57%的人都在16到29岁之间,虽然大部分学生都会租房完成他们的学业。但是,一旦他们完成学业,找打一份工作,并期待建立一个家庭。他们就将会进入首次购房市场。这也极大地增加了廉价房产的需求,特别是奥克兰,大量的学生人数让当地经济适用房紧缺尤其严重。  e0 R, s5 c* [' B1 f6 e/ w. L
这也意味着,新增移民正在成为房价增加的首要因素。诚然,新增移民对经济增长的帮助是显而易见的,教育机构获得自己,零售业销售增长,技能劳工人数增加也帮助降低工资水平。但是,如何保证生活和基础设施,如交通、医疗和教育服务能够承受增长的移民需求,还有很多困难。比如奥克兰,正在为它的短期收益付出长痛的代价。
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